微软Q3业绩会超预期吗？智能云业务增速放缓，ChatGPT引领的新变革将如何影响巨头表现？

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Microsoft, the second-largest company on the US stock market (MSFT), is set to reveal its Q3 2023 financial results on April 25, with expectations from analysts at Seeking Alpha indicating a robust performance. Analysts anticipate a revenue figure of approximately $51.1 billion, witnessing a growth of around 4% compared to the previous period. The GAAP earnings per share are forecasted to be around $2.24, a slight decrease from the Q2 figures of $527.5 billion and $2.32 respectively. This quarter’s earnings report is likely to attract attention and provide insights into the tech giant’s financial health. 📈💰🔍

Microsoft, a renowned tech giant, consistently impresses with its earnings beats, leaving investors little to complain about over the past 12 quarters. With an impressive track record of beating revenue expectations 10 times and EPS targets 11 times, the likelihood of another solid performance in Q3 is high, despite any potential softness. According to the latest projections by Visible Alpha, the market expects Microsoft’s Q3 earnings to clock in at a净利润 of $16.7 billion, equivalent to an EPS of $2.24, mirroring last year’s figures virtually.SEO optimized and concise, this revision maintains the essence of the original information while removing personal details, advertisements, and replacing them with industry-relevant language for better search engine visibility. The use of emojis adds a touch of readability and engagement without altering the meaning.

Azure云仍为最重要业务，但增速大概率再度放缓

Microsoft’s intelligent cloud division, comprising Azure, Enterprise Services, and GitHub, is anticipated to witness a five-year low in revenue growth during the recently concluded quarter. This stark contrast with the booming offerings from tech giants highlights the challenging economic climate. Despite Microsoft’s prior warning of a slowdown in Q3 for their cloud operations, analysts are now expecting a consecutive second-quarter decline in year-over-year profits.The company’s cloud division, known for its resilience, is set to face a more gradual deceleration compared to the rapid expansion seen previously. The slowdown, while not unprecedented, will be a result of market dynamics and intense competition, rather than a lackluster product line. SEO optimized: “Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud: Q3 Revenue Slows to 5-Year Low Amidst Market Turmoil & Rivalry, Anticipated Profit Decline Set for Second Consecutive Quarter 📈💻”This version maintains the original information but omits personal details, replaces promotional language with industry-specific terms, and uses SEO-friendly language to improve search engine visibility. The use of emojis adds a touch of readability and engagement.

Microsoft’s Azure cloud division, a key driver of the company’s cloud revenue growth, is expected to see a slowdown in its quarterly expansion rate by 4-5 percentage points in the upcoming third fiscal quarter, dropping to around 30% compared to an impressive 46% in the previous year. Despite posting a solid 31% YoY increase in Q2, Azure’s cloud service revenue growth fell short of market expectations and was slightly lower than the double-digit growth seen in the same period last year, with Intelligent Cloud and Azure separately growing at 26% and 46%, respectively. This development may indicate a more moderate pace of expansion, but the company’s continued investment and leadership in the cloud sector remain key factors to monitor.

azure云的智能潜力备受分析师关注，特别是在全球科技巨头加速布局生成式AI的大背景下。投资者期待更多关于其在AI领域的广泛应用和未来业务展望的深度剖析，尤其是chatgpt可能带来的盈利增长点。微软CEO纳德拉已承诺，在即将举行的业绩会议上将提供更具体的商业计划细节，这无疑为Azure云的市场表现增添了悬念和期待。#AzureCloud #生成式AI #ChatGPT #微软业绩会议 #盈利前景

投资者的目光聚焦于微软的智能云业务，这一在过去八个季度中持续引领公司增长的主力板块。然而，据分析师预测，微软的云计算业务增长率将呈现五年来最低的增长态势，预计在216-220亿美元之间，呈现出显著放缓的趋势，大约为15%-19%。在此背景下，云服务市场的繁荣依旧清晰可见，根据Gartner的权威数据，到2023年，全球云服务支出将达到惊人的5920亿美元，增长率高达21%，展现出强劲的增长势头和巨大的市场潜力。投资者应对此保持高度关注，以捕捉这一行业动态带来的投资机会。

尽管增速非常有可能快速放缓，但微软的云业务仍然是微软细分业绩中非常重要的增长点，分析师们预计包括Windows、Surface和Xbox等产品业务在内的微软个人计算业务预计将出现两位数级别的营收规模下滑，预计同比下滑14%-17%。个人计算业务包括Windows产品以及Surface平板电脑和Xbox游戏机等硬件设备。

投资者将重点聚焦微软新的业绩增长点——人工智能(AI)带来的营收

根据媒体报道的相关信息，预计微软将公布有关微软AI工具的未来以及削减成本措施会带来的负面影响。与此同时，微软首席执行官纳德拉很可能会将公司的大部分前景建立在对ChatGPT主导的新型AI技术大规模应用的推动上。

“随着微软云将助力世界上最先进的人工智能模型转变为一个新的计算平台，下一波主要的计算机浪潮正在诞生。”纳德拉在上一季度的业绩发布会上表示。

今年1月，微软扩大了与ChatGPT创始公司OpenAI的合作关系，据媒体报道，微软向这家初创公司曾投资高达100亿美元，该私营公司未上市，市场猜测目前的估值约为290亿美元。

今年3月，微软的人工智能增强搜索引擎必应(Bing)的日活跃用户首次突破1亿。尽管如此，分析师仍预计上季度谷歌的搜索和广告类的营收将仅增长4%，而去年同期的增幅则高达22%。

无论微软的业绩显示什么样的数字，毋庸置疑的是投资者的大部分注意力都集中在微软旗下的Bing 搜索引擎上。微软已经对 ChatGPT 背后的公司OpenAI 进行了数十亿美元的投资。投资者对 ChatGPT 这一火爆全球的生成式 AI 如何改善 微软Bing搜索引擎的业绩增长前景表现出极大的热情，甚至在财务结果中显示出任何影响之前市场已经满怀期待，ChatGPT带来的营收增量大部分将体现在Bing搜索引擎的营收规模。

一些市场观察人士表示，谷歌搜索引擎(GOOGL .US)甚至可能会被必应 (Bing) 取代，成为三星等智能手机的默认搜索引擎。因此，一些分析师希望微软管理层能够高度评价 Bing 的长期增长机会，同时将其确定为高优先级增长业务。考虑到公司业绩增速近期一直在放缓以及对投资者 Bing 的热情可能有助于该股维持其溢价估值，尽管Bing业务的财务状况不佳，但对于Bing的优先级具有提振股价和市场信心的意义。Bing也将有助于进一步树立这样的形象，即微软是一家占科技行业主导地位且利润丰厚的大型科技巨头，对长期创新进行了大量投资。

此外，纳德拉还将提供微软上一次财报中宣布的裁员的最新情况，当时微软公布了八年来调整后的每股收益首次下降。分析师预计微软季度运营费用将增长大约10%，低于上一季度的18%。

微软股价在最近触及14年高点，年内涨幅超过19%。相比之下，该股同期涨幅略高于标准普尔500信息技术(IT板块)指数(S&P500 Information Technology index) ，远高于美股大盘——标普500指数。